starts right now. good evening, thank you. ooers the newest data on the state of the election in two o swes twi states. ohio and florida, new data out today. "the washington post" putting out new numbers showing president obama ahbyht tsiondr ts in florida. while the swing state map is what everybody is watching the swing states are the most important to keep an eye on because that'shere you wrap up the votes that allow you to win the elecon, there's w naalolling now for what it's worth. there's new polling every day. the republican leaning poll is out with their new national

numbers today. their national tracking poll putting president obama up by one point nationally. thgall tinllti prent obama up by three points today nationally. that's in big picture perspective of what's going on in the presidential race. for an even bigger picture perspective on those nationa numbers, i should poinout you that of the last 20 national presidential polls, of the 20 national polls taken in the month of september, every single one of those it 20 polls shows president obama winning nationally. rava fonin up to eight points in some other polls. but 20 straight national polls showing president obama ahead. that's what you call a trend. now ether or not that trend is es tpuan whether it fires them up to try

to do better for their candidate, honestly the wisdom is that one of the most consequential things that can happen because of polling like thrks one the the this th poinn e ha c have a fatal affect on fundraising. it's interesting. politico.com had a big picture review of the romney campaign struggles. it included this piece ever since they published it. quote, to get a flavor of the chnge beforehem,ne t donor said that after mitt romney spoke at a fundraising breakfast on friday, a will-mitt win poll was taken at a table of ten men who paid to attend that fundraiser. so at their table of ten men, n?ey asked each other, will mitt of the ten men, not a single man said yes. of ten active mitt romney supporters who were actively

supporting him at that ment wiheonze said he will win. and they admit to that at the fundraiser. that's not a phenomenon that can last a super long time. you don't get to sit around at $2500 a plate fundraisers tag t youy going to lose. eventually you're going to stop going to those fundraisers. you will stop throwing good money after bad. luckily for the romney campaign, there is a solution to this poteial oblethatan b caused by polling. this potential fundraising campaign death spiral. there's a way arou it. a new argument emerged about the polling that says that mitt romney is losi the race and losing badly in the new polls, yeut nrgt he right is that the polls are all wrong. mathematically.

even the fox news poll. they are a unfairly skewed to make it look like obama is winning when, in fact, that's not the case. the new argument on the right is that if you reconfigure all of e mast pol to sk if i them to make them be less liberal, they don't look like this anymore with 20 straight polls for obama. instead they look like this. hey, yeah, that's way better. mitt romney is actually nning all ofheecent polls at you thought president obama was in the guy who did this it neat trick, the unskewing of the polling so mitt romney wins in every one instead of losing in every one, that guy explained his methodology to the fol at buzz feed sayi he created this new romney-always-wins polng , e,erdi "washington post" poll that just didn't look right noting that the polling had sampled more democrats than republicans. sampling more democrats than republicans. hm, that sounds like a reasonable argument.

evodghveso be suspicious of the polls showing president obama leading if, in fact, pollsters are systemicly oversampling democrats when doing their polling. inat's not what pollers e they are not going out and looking for too many democrats for their polls in order to fill some quota to get the liberal result they want. pollsters polling the swing states are finding more people calling themselves democrats in those swg states because there are moreeople calling se dran swing states. it's not a biassed look at the states. it's a look at the states that show the states have a democratic bias. that's why president obama is winning there. the electorates are leaning democratic. tea w n fantasy electorate to replace the real electorate because you don't like what the real electorate seems poised to do. trying to turn the polls

themselves into a controversy. i waamazed when this happened. today it moved on from being a source of skrept conservative m out of those corners of the internet to being the official line of the romney campaign itself. mid-afternoon today, the romney campaign started leaking news that they y their internal polling data doesn't really have ey, ythllg ohio at all. show them losing ohio, but their internal romney polls show mr. romney specially tied in ohio. at least they show romney inside the margin of error in ohio. but again, they are t releasing this magical internal polling data. they are saying that's what it sa kind of like the summary of mitt romney's tax returns. if it's true they have internal polling data doing great in ohio, just in the interest of their donors, shouldn't they relee those numbers? this isn't a magic thing. al , h an a hypothetical thing.

the data for, we can see not only that it in ohio, president obama is up by eight, we can see why president obama is up by eight in ohio. that "washington post" poll out today has other data in it including the fact that 36% of all ohio voters say they hav ccty ob campaign. that contacted by the campaign number is seven points lower in term ls of the romney campaign. the obama campaign is doing it better. threkio vs in ohio. that's making a difference. the hill today reporting that it's not just ohio. the obama campaign has double the nuer of field staff as the romney campaign and in a number of key swing state, the obama fohawihebe field offices. "the l.a. times" looked at the payroll numbers. they find the obama campaign is employing twice the number of staff as the the romy campaign

last month at about the same cost. the are twice as many people working on the obama campaign if you exclude the $200,000 the romney campaign paid out in bonuses to its campaign officials last month, the romney's payroll number was still rougy the same a prenamevhoug president obama had double the number of boots on the ground. fewer romney staff e but they get paid a lot more. there's a reason president obama is ahead in the last 20 national polls. there'a reason he's up by eiin lt hin post" poll in ohio. his campaign is doing more and whichever way you skint at the data, president obama is winning his effort at reelection. now is when you see the signs of ere kiofit desperation.

there's the aboveground december separation, inventing a whole new polling method wherebyour guy wins all the time instead of ng timcaev fox news is inn the conspiracy to make it look like obama is winning, that's aboveground desperation. at least it's happening in the light of day where everybody can see it. here's what's happening a little below the surface on the right. this is what underground political desperation looks like 41ays before the election when the republican candidate is clearly losing. this is a web ad just been asy nsti outside group accusing president obama of being in bed with the muslim brotherhood, which by the way, is trying to take over america. the group skponl for this ad says it's part of a $7 million

online ad buy. $7illi, wepokeith is group to confirm the number because we couldn't believe it was that high. they assured us. this ad was part of a $7 million online ad buy. that's just in onle distribution for this adnd a eyill target voters online. whether it turns up on tv remas to be seen. tv ads are not in the works, but they are talking to donors about that possibility. but honestly, we shall die as mar ta, why mr. president? this kind of stuff usually functions ttn shads than it does in the high-profile settings where it can be scrutinized more widely. another place for underground attacks associated with a lot of money from our old friend ralph reid. ateid and his faith and freedom coalition is set to pour $12 million into their campaign

this year. andy kroll got his hands on what he was spending himoney on. it's labeled as a 2012 voter registration confirmation survey. questine do you rate barack obama's overall performance as president so far? here are your choices. excellent, good, fair, poor, ysmal,ndecided, or i consider him an enemy of liberty and the values that built our vaet great nation. a couple questions, there's an issue summary that you have to . it's the statement of facts before you get to answer your question. here's the issue summary. the statement of facts. the anti-american communist dictator hew voe chavez calls barack obama comrade obama and believes president obama is to the left of himself and fidel castro.

these are the the facts. now the question. when fidel castro hailed the passage of obama care as a miracle, do you think this is because he is honestly concerned with the well-being of americans or is it more likely that cost stest way to bring socialism to america? what do you think? how much danger do you think liberty isn as a result of president obama's policies, actis and agenda for america's tu? it's how much. you have to quantity fie this. it could be all of these. more serious than the threats we faced in world war ii from naz si germany and the japanese because the attack on liberty today is from our own government. at's one choice. or, more serious than the threat we face from the soviet union during the cold war.

or all of the above. or serious but not as serious as ththreats to liberty listed ab for all the communist pollsters, that's one of the choices. you were asked if you will pledge right now on this survey to vote november 6th if you are physically able to do so. you have to fill in the bubble sang you're swearing tdo i and you have to sign your name there to verify your pledge. and also please send ralph reed some money. will you send your best emergency freedom saving donation right now? ralph reed is going to spend $12 at lf agr is electiocycle. hilarious polls. i'm sure ralph reed himself is doing well in terms of the cut he's taking for this surveying that he's doing, but12 million even minus the considerable fee, that's got to be a lot omoney. th'sotcoin

president obama to hitler and please sign here if you understand it. and $7 million on the obama is viting the muslim brotherhood to destroy america ad campaign? that's a lotf money, but this is what the campaign is going to t.art to lk li fm heren when the campaign gets tough, the campaigning gets weird and nasty and weirdly nasty. joining us is a distinguished senior fellow, bob, thank you for being here. a difficult survey, right? >> that's a great survey. >> my favorite part is your choices on how abysmal president obama is, his erall performance. afyou get abysmal, e'still lower choices for you. so underground tactics like this. this isn't quite the racist campaign flier under the

windshield wiper in the urch paing lot, but it's the tae io t how do you know whether or not this stuff is going to work? >> the the first thing you need to to know about the gop is this is a party that needs professional counselling. they don't believe in evolution, they don't believe the president ey'tiehelsn this country. now. so now they are running these weird ads. but they are in fantasy land. they are going back to an era when these kinds of ads could get some traction. t it theame d th itreing the candidate, the democratic candidate as the other. they think it's easier now because barack obama is afcan-american. so they present him as the other, the friend of the muslim brotherhood, the underlyg here t coy chd.'sla it's not the same.

so they are out of touch with what's going on in the country. and the second problem they have is the dem strask issue. the country s changed in terms of the makeup of the population. you know, we don't know wh's goto happewithhis election. it could still go either way. but if the republican party doesn't change its message and sttegies and it's whole message, it's doomed because it can no longer function in what tise about the s has come. legitimacy of the president and trying to other rise him, i found myself in reading the right-wing arguments, it's not just stuff from the blog world. it's definitely relatively retepuanls starting to get on board. it made me start to think about let's say the election goes the way the polls say it's going to go.

aren't they laying t groundwork to say he stole the lek? that his election is illegitimate? whether or not you think he's foreign, he couldn't possibly be a legitimate president for a second term. >> theare never going to acknowdghe'segitatel president. he can serve the full eight years. they are not going to acknowledge he was legitimate. but the question becomes, can it ma viaasar? and the real problem that the republicans have, i mean the polls come after the fact. the polls are a reflection of what's going on in the united states. the real problem that the republicans have in this campaign is, they have a terrible candidate. mitt romneis not a good id but potentially even bigger problem is that the electorate does not seem to be buying what

the republicans are offering. when romney picked ryan as vice president, i said to my wife, i think romney may have lost the election here. threas i saithas bee picking paul ryan, it opened up that argument of the republican party as extreme and the democrats just pounced on that as you would expect them to do. d the country does not want those extreme aspects of the republican party, those extreme right wing policies. theyo ree 'st us into this trouble both overseas with the war in iraq and also with the economy. and they are not going for it anymore. the republic no longer belies that the way to help middle cls and low-income families is to give more money to the rich. ulvo tidught tt tt rney he decided not to do that. >> i feel like the country republicans people in the middle and on the left want a republican party that's essentially giving a good fight. so we can have a big hashed out ob.cussion about how to fiour

i'll be talking more about that later in the sw about something that's been left out of the campaign. but i think even the left is rooting for the republican party to get its act together. >> because we don't want one party. we want two viable parties. >> we want to benet from bohoriwig real debate. we're a long way off. thank you for being here. florida voters, i have something to tell you about your particular role in the election this year. rd to ts ye, renghao a slim novel of terrifying power. it's a short book, but it's book length. i will explain in a moment. [ ma ancer ths , loay hiheerfe swing begins with back pain and a choice. take advil, and maybe have to take up to four in a day. or take aleve,

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orts mascots. noe in, p football team. so we just live with it. also weird the republican race for senate in the great state of massachusetts. reported here last night on hothe highest profile senate rate in the country between scbranizh en has turned into a flat out racial campaign with the republican incumbent running against his chalnger just straight up the basis of ery beepng o this campaign as if that fact about it is normal, but it's really not normal. it's not even normal in a country where we still have native american football mascots. the brown campaign running on race got worse today. it's hard to believe, but it did. did. s iea producing cleaner electricity, putting us to work here in america

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reelection campaign of scott brown of massachusetts is not afraid of stunts. it's le an ann colter column. except it's a senate campaign. so for exale, iethis month on the anniversary of occupy wall street, scott brown's staffers went to an elizabeth warren event and tried to deliver this cake to her. get it it? elizabeth warren is like a occupy activist. sohe ga cake fm sct n. their stunt was trying to deliver this melting sheet cake. they were so proud to have it they tweeted a picture of themselves trying to pull off the stunt. there's a long history of people

trying to provoke their opponents so they do something emas oma. if they could have that reaction while someone is filming, that would be great. what i'm about to show you is not that. it's not run of the mill politics. it's not delivering an unapaling sheet cakeo your opntch f hilarious. this is different. here's the context. at last week's debate between scott brown and elizabeth warren, senator brown right ou of the gate, before anything was discussed, firsthing scott own cklithre for being native american because he says, she looks white to him. >> she checked the box claiming she was a native american. clearly, she's not. >> stt b is also one-man racial litmus test. don't know if your great

grandmother was czech? ask scott brown. he can tell right away. he could count the number of white grandparents president obama had by looking at his jaw nehiposturor something. i mean what he's saying here is that's not a native american. i mean, come on, look at her. and by the way, affirmative actioneverybody freak out. >> i don't know and neither do the viewers know whether in fact she got ahead as a result of that checking of the box. >> how would senator brown know if he got ahead? he's an expert in her ethnic ancestry not on her career. that was on thursday. i can't derstand why it dn't get more attentionatiolly. especially when the brown campaign followed it up with an ad repeating the same fake scandal, which is either that you should not vote for elizabeth warren because she's native american or that scott brown inks she looks too white to be native american. that's the choice for what they

are ying what e scdal bey s incapable of giving scott brown attention of any kind of any subject, but the fact he's nning a race-based reelection campaign has not been clear enough, now it has to be getting too clear to ignore. >> in between the ti scott brown said that elizabeth warren aliver, th white to him be a time he released a campaign ad attacking her for being native american, this happened. this is a scott brown rally on saturday. what you're looking at and

what you're looking at and hearing and recoiling from is five scott brown staffers and republican party opetive tiakr pshat are supposed to sound native american-like. they are doing the move called the tomahawk chop to make fun of native amerins. the abc affiliate in bosn identified the staffers as the deputy chief of aff, state special assistant and a massachusetts state republican party operative. he has his senate staff out there doing this. you pay their salary. this footage was originally posted by the blue mass group ogt rhrou the boston media. he was asked about the tape. after turning down an offer to look at the foage, he says he doesn't condone this from his staff, but these are his staffers and this is his campgn for reelection. and this appartly het cey.

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three hours at the university of tampa waiting so lg they sat wn ithe llwawihe hork aleast they got to wait inside. at other polling places, voters wait outside in the rain. this is the last sunday befo the election in 2008. people waited through lines that stretched for three city blocks. some people brought towels to telp others dry ofenough to they brought sandwiches and pizzas, anything to get people to brave the long lines and vote. that was for early voting. the lines were still long on election day. one guy showed up at 6:10 in the morning and found 48 people in li a om. good morning. you're number 50. enjoy the wait. that's how it went in 2008. last time florida voted. this is what t ballot looked like in 2008 in tampa. it's four pages, two pieces of paper ont and back. neisthllhepeople were waiting in were waiting in line for the chance to fill out. do you want to see what the

ballot looks like this year? bigger and it's six pages on three pieces of paper. t 's six pages.s for votg, there are 15 referendum questions. they are printed in full. these are not summaries. the ballot is 2500 words long. that not even voting for people. sthe other ballot questions of that aren't about candidates and who is running for president and senator. look at this page. can you find the ballot question on this page? yes. at the bottom. you' supposed to mark at the bo. and tampa's ballot, this ballot is actually quite short compared to some of the other ones. the ballot in miami-dade this years ten pages, ten giant 'spe avee ed with tiny type.

state. the election supervisor in monroe county calls the ballot there, a monster. in pinellas county, the election supervisor says this is the longest ballot i can remember. the voter who sees this the first time may need smelling salts. hual taw t read and fill out. then you have to stand there and scan it in. page after page. and even before this year's monster ballots, florida knows they have a problem with long lines to vote. with the monster ballots set to slow things down even furthe theaha ttate of florida done to make sure everybody can get through the voting lines? they have cut early voting days. in008 hundreds of thousands voted early in florida u fdat y 800,000 people. and this guy, the democratic candidate for president won florida and won the election. now that guy is on the ballot

again this year. so they are not going to make the same mistake. who knows if it's connected, but florida's republan governor for this it electionut the farotalmost in half. yesterday a federal judge removed the last hurdle to florida's new law. it's true. florida voters are going to have fewer days this year whethey can cast a ballot this big. even though the ballot they have to cast totly, unprecedently giant. a new poll from the florida times uniofinds the president with a slim lead over mitt romney in florida. the lead is built on support from african-americavoters and hispanic voterho iare going foam 3in a new report from the nonpartisan advancement project details legal changes put in place by republican state officials fothis election. changes that it will make it harder to vote in those states. voter purges and curtailing early voti andaking it rder to register and showing

documentation and that not all legal voters have, voting changes ve made voting harder in ways the advancement project says could keep ten million latino citizens from gisting. in the swing states of colorado, florida, and virginia they affect more hispanic voters than the entire margin of democratic victory in 2008. hold on. there's more. [ female announcer ] research suggests cell health plays a key role throughout our lives. one a day women's 50+ is a complete multivitamin

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> is it time to reconsider foreign aid to countri whe ma of peop d wus around? >> how would you as president manage the continuing issues of the arab spring differently? >> would you consider the current egyptianegime an ally of the united states? >> should the castro brothers worry about a romney presidency? >> what uld you ll lino families looking at you asking for reecti, abo u >>t'urn to reach latinos and why are you so far below president obama in preference? >> that was all jose diaz-balart. he is also host of the sunday morning public affai show and he joins us tonight for the interview. welcome.

it's nice to have you here. thank you. >> i'm living a dream by being on your show. >> flattery will get you everywhere. congratulations on those interviews. i learned a lot from watchg hisonatwiou president obama predicted the republican party would need to make changes. they would be forced to reevaluate some thing pchs do you think republicans are going to come to agree with that? >> they better. they better. let'talkuthe hpani coitr nu 20 million could be eligible to vote. 12 million will vote this next november. if a political party believes they can ignore, turn their back or not even deal with some of the the main issues, a large group of voters rely cares abou iy tipa believes they can just ignore that issue, i was born in fort

lauderdale, i have some land they can build hh-rises on if they think they can ignore that population. y h heteat of america, 50,000 latino kids turn 18 years of age. 18 equals potential voters. and you know what? they are watching, and they e listening tohat polil leaderare yingndng a not doing. so you know, this is an important issue that i think the president, you know, spoke of it very specifically. they better realize both political parties better realize this is a force not going away and it's only gog to get bigg, asig a,000ew potential voters every month. >> i think the democrats take comfort in the margins that they have with latino voters nationwide looking broadly at that population. but every time you talk to republics about it, they say, , buit sing an

there are 21 million people eligible to vote, but we are expecting only 12 million of them to turn out to vote. is there a key to unlockin latino voter entsiasm and turn out in registration? >> sn ane sh not a senator in nevada. let's talk about enthusiasm there and ask harry reid why he continues to be the leader of the senate in this country and who helped him win reelection. and some say it wasn't as much hay re win rctas sharon angle losing an election where immigration was center of the discussion for many months. i've got to tell you something. the big issue that president obama needs to worry about, and isorribo as far as latino community is concerned, is that they will come out to vote. no one doubts the numbers. the nbc "wall street journal" poll every month shows, as a matter of fact, the gap

increasing. more latinos are supporting oba thhee roeyth after month after month. but i am not convinced that they are all going to come out to vote for a number of reasons this coming novemb. >> in terms of what would move them? do you tnk it's policy or sothing about the way the campaigns are trying to goose inkolicy has a lot to do with it. the deferred action to help maybe 1.5 million young kids isnt thae in other country but serve in the armed forces and give their life for this country, don't even speak the language from the country they were originally brought from with no decision on their part, their parents brought them in. those kids, for example, are now being able to come out from under the shadows of fear and darkss in this country. evt's twyeariout it helps. these are the issues that are

going to have a lot to do with the elections. >> jose, i have be a long-time fan of yours. i hope you come back. it wasreat to have you. >> it's a pleare to be with you. president obama addressed the united nations general assembly here in new york today, which should have done something it did not do in our politics. [ male announcer ] the 2013 smart comes with 8 airbags, a crash management system and the world's only tridion safety cell which can withstand over three and a half tons. small in size. big on sety. mom's smartphone... dad's tablet... or lauren's smartphone... &t haa plan built

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and i will always defend their right to do so. president obama speaking day at the u.n. here in new york. one of the times on the presidential trail you get the advantage of the incbency thing. speaking as head of state, addressing other state, getting mmr hiout urse a although he was campaigning, there's nothing like those optics for the guys who are running to replace him. still they're doing what they autotic to be doing. paul ryan also in ohio this hs ki. president obama just the other day, he said on tv that i can't change washington from the side. why do we send presidents to the white house in the first place? isn't that why we send presidents to washington, to ch wng >> this is parentally the new

thing that president obama said it's hard to change washington om the inside. mitt romney is on record saying the exact same thing on the presidential campaign trail, but apnthent ito ba scl. which of course is ridiculous. but i highlight that speech for the reason other than the hypocrisy of the dumb change in washington line. and the reason i highlight it is because paul ryan new stump eechs tentiv bring out into foreign policy. kind of. >> i mean, turn on the tv and it reminds you of 1979 tehran, but they're burning our flags in capitals all around the world. they're storming our embassies. d wh is e sial tt ur diplomats government is sending the world. >> paul ryan wants to look like president obama is one-term jimmy carter and paul ryan would

be cast as ronald reagan. but it's notable that 's even trying in a campaign that's been unwilling and unable to engage america in the larger world. he finally trying to do it. in terms of what they're going to do, on even just say the issue of war we're in rit now, they have really been unwilling to engage. maybe this means they'lltart. so far, i meanfamoly m mneyidn'men thwa afghanistan at all. he explained in speeches like that you don't go through a laundry list. you go tough things that are important. the war wasn't iortant to him. but it's not just specifically afghanistan. here's another one. if you go to mitt romney's website rit and u pe thrdneto sh box on the website because you want to know his position.

you will find three results. three. one result is mr. romney criticizinmr. obama after drone crashed in iran. en there's a policy paper criztham administration for talking about drones to news outlets like "the new york times" and you have one of t is your gates for killing osama bin laden. if you want to know what his llobottoite y using flying answer is that he also thinks killing bin laden was a good idea. he wouldn't crash one in iran. any questions? is ys le th wheyo izatevermpornt this presidential campaign is and this decision is, that we as a country have to make between these two candidates, our politics are essentially failing right now. they'ressentially impotent n

foba queionsike is one. choosing between candidates is supposed to be the way we choose between policies in important thing that affect or country including national security. but our politics have been eswanto a ik if one side we're not going to debate it as a country. let people in washington figure it out. a new report out today says our secret drone policy, which we've rt oa dede, y be or the beer radicalizing the residents with a radical country. we're not going to debate that at all. that's not a policy matter that's worth some national discussion. noompengasutbe ch icour. this is what the democratic president is doing. the republican party has no competing ideas on this at all?

nothing to say with this policy, due process that we afford people, that we kill people, the due pcess ultimately consists of the idenof ud es making the call. but we are in the process of picking who's going to be the next president and we're not asking where these two men stand on that issue or if they think they should have that power. if that poweshould exist. if we're not going to ask these quonw. look at this week. you have president obama at the un talking about the policy of pakistan and hillary clinton meeting the president of pack is an on the same day. you have the developing story of thdronatta yesterday that killed an al qaeda leader. and you have a presidential campaign. but the nvertionhen

comes to this stuff is he seems like jimmy carter. i read that he was a one-term president once. really? that's all you've got. how about this. what wouldou do differently if the answer is we'd be stronger, that's not an answer. desve aolits th i cae ivus choices or setting up a debate about competing reasonable ideas about handling the controversial things the government does in our names. i know what the obama administration's position is on afistan. because he's theresint. i have no idea what mitt romney would do different in afghanistan, if anytng. i know what the obama's adnistration is on drones. i frankly find that position hair raising. i know what the obama administration's position is on kist knowitt mneyhink pakistan is very important. is it inconceivable somebody would ask him why, how, what his plan would be when it comes to that country?